After watching CORD over the last couple of weeks I am now convinced that there is a small group around the CORD leader who are feeding him with extremely bad advice; including deliberately lying to him, about what happened in the last election. This group needs Raila Odinga to rebuild the narrative used between 2007 and 2013, to help them sustain the party and their political careers until the next election. Sadly, they also do not care what happens to him, his credibility or his legacy, in the process.
After the 2007 general elections the narrative that was developed and cultivated by ODM was that Raila Odinga had actually won the elections but it was stolen from him. This narrative sustained ODM’s hold in Nyanza, Coast, Western and Rift Valley, by assuring supporters that their support led to ‘a win’ that ‘those people’ stole. It also ensured that 5 years later the party maintained its strangle-hold in most of its 2007 strong-holds; in fact only the Kalenjin-Rift Valley voted different, after William Ruto changed the narrative.
CORD seems to be recreating the ODM post-2007 elections narrative. This is actually a smart strategy because it will not only deny the Jubilee government full legitimacy in CORD regions, but will also keep the CORD coalition united and provide its leaders with local, regional and international relevance and public platforms over the next 5 years. However this narrative is also extremely dangerous to Kenya’s national interest if the lessons of the last 5 years are anything to go by.
This narrative ensures the proverbial West/East Kenya divide stays. ‘West’ Kenya will continue to be angry with ‘East’ Kenya and demonizing them as supporters of 'those thieves’. ‘East’ Kenya on the other hand will enhance the siege mentality developed over the last 5 years as they prepare to defend themselves against unjustified accusations.
This sets the stage for violence in the next general election; with one side prepared to do whatever is necessary to ensure their victory is not 'stolen', again; while the other side will go to any end to prove that their win was legitimate. Meanwhile we will continue to operate in the kind of political environment that Raila admitted was so sensitive that even he could not publicly speak out against situations he was uncomfortable with lest his statement provokes violence.
There is also the issue of whether CORD can even justifiably make the claim that the 2013 elections were stolen. Those of us who were involved in various political formations in this last election understand that our ballot results were only but a confirmation of how well each coalition had prosecuted the entire campaign process before March Fourth; i.e. how well did we motivate our voters to register; how well organized was our ‘get out the vote’ machinery; how efficient was our agent system in protecting the at the ballot at all levels; and how effective were we in ensuring competitors did not inflate their votes.
I am yet to meet someone from CORD who can honestly say we did better than Jubilee in this process. Like a football match where the winner of a game is not always the team with the better players but the team that actually puts more balls in the net, Jubilee put more balls in the net at nearly every step of the process. This CORD must accept if we are ever to get a chance to defeat Jubilee in future. This acceptance will not only enable those now pursuing a political career under the CORD banner to learn from our mistakes and do a better job next time, but it will also help them be a more effective opposition.
CORD does not help the situation at all, by trying to shift its failure to the actions of third parties. We cannot build sustainable institutions if we destroy them every 5 years because one political candidate or the other disagrees with how they dealt with him. The fact that only one out of 8 candidates, and only one out of tens of parties and coalitions are complaining about an institution they all used, means CORD must stop digging the hole they are in.
But the attacks on the Chief Justice take the cake. Dr Mutunga has earned his stripes the hard way; just like Raila himself. However it seems someone in CORD has dusted the ODM 2008 playbook (where some could argue that the party literally hounded the former ECK boss Samuel Kivuitu to his death in a similar manner) and advised the CORD leader to make the Chief Justice the scapegoat for CORD’s 2013 failures. This is wrong.
Muriithi Mutiga in this last weekend’s Sunday Nation observes that as one of the most astute student of Kenya’s politics, Raila knows he lost this last general election, in his heart of hearts. He must now remember former British Prime Minister Benjamin Disraeli words, that no government can long be secure without a formidable opposition. He must now focus on enabling them to keep Jubilee on their toes; based on what they do now, not what they did before they were government.
Finally, CORD must now get a new narrative as they prepare for the next general election. I do not know will be, but it must shift from grievance, to aspiration. If those currently leading the coalition cannot formulate this alternative narrative then maybe it is time that CORD looked for its own 'Tony Blair'; a fresh leader with a fresh 'New CORD' narrative.
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