Divided states like Egypt and Kenya should be run by grand coalitions
By MURITHI MUTIGA
Posted Saturday, July 27 2013 at 20:00
Posted Saturday, July 27 2013 at 20:00
One of the curious things about the crisis in Egypt is that all sides – the military, the Muslim Brotherhood and the activists on the streets – swear that they are fighting for “the people”.
The Brothers cite the fact that they won in both rounds of the presidential election at the end of May and in mid-June (although they admit they only scraped through by the narrowest of margins, taking 51.7 per cent in the runoff).
The activists insist they brought out 33 million protesters on the latest “day of rage” which saw the Muslim Brotherhood’s Mohammed Morsy toppled (a nonsensical claim considering it would mean that one in every three Egyptians had taken to the streets, a fact which doesn’t square in a nation where a fifth of the population is aged below 10).
The military, the great beneficiary of all this confusion because it is back in the driver’s seat following the ouster of the Brotherhood, argues that it is the “protector of the revolution” and will back “the people” against “terrorists and fools” out to cause chaos.
Which way forward for Egypt? Well, the best model they can find on the continent is Kenya in the early days of 2008.
The nation was divided down the middle with President Kibaki claiming he was the “duly elected” leader of the country while Raila Odinga said he was “the people’s president” and threatened a one- million-man march to State House to get himself installed.
The formation of the grand coalition, giving each of the leaders “half a loaf”, was much criticised at the time. With the benefit of hindsight, it is clear now that the coalition was a major success, delivering an economic recovery and a widely accepted new Constitution.
Egypt must take the same path. All sides command the support of a substantial enough portion of the population that cannot be ignored. A government of national unity would spare the nation years of unrest and bloodshed.
The political clamour in Kenya so many months after the election should also make us ponder whether pluralistic, Jeffersonian democracy is the best option for the nation.
I have written before that Africa should explore other methods of picking a government rather than the first-past-the-post system which is so divisive.
Yet while I back the spirit of Okiya Okoiti Omtatah’s proposed amendment, his timing is wrong. The story of the last election is not that one side had superior numbers – the population statistics tell a different story – but simply that the Cord presidential campaign was run extremely incompetently.
How could a team that reportedly spent in excess of Sh10 billion not manage to post election agents across the country, especially in Jubilee strongholds?
Where was Cord when Jubilee was drumming up voter registration in its strongholds so that by December 19 most Central Kenya counties had turned out around 120 per cent of the target population to the registration centres?
Blaming the IEBC is politically convenient because the body cannot fight back. Cord should first look inwards before insisting on constitutional amendments because it lost an election.
Yet on a broader, philosophical level, I heartily agree with those who point out the dangers of a “tyranny of numbers” system in an ethnically divided society such as ours.
Most African communities had a consensus driven system of government in the pre-colonial era. That is probably why the nation has enjoyed its most sustained spells of economic growth when it has had a rainbow coalition government involving all parts of the country, as witnessed in the 1960s and 1970s and lately in the Kibaki-Raila years. Coalitions are probably the best way to run divided nations like Egypt and Kenya.
Murithi Mutiga is the special projects editor, Sunday Nation mmutiga@ke.nationmedia.com
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